uk election 2010

Hung parliament: What happens next?

If on Friday morning no party has been able to secure an outright majority in the House of Commons, there will be a frantic period of negotiation to decide the shape of the next government.
The situation is described as a hung parliament, with no single party having enough MPs - 326 - to win parliamentary votes without the support of members of other parties.
Which party is in a position to form the next government will become clear in the following hours or days. Read on for an explanation of the options or see our election outcomes decision tree.

WHICH PARTY CAN TRY TO FORM THE GOVERNMENT?

Even if the Conservatives gain the most seats, the largest party does not automatically have the right to try to form an administration.

WHAT HAPPENS AFTER ELECTION? See election outcomes tree in full

As the incumbent prime minister, that right is Gordon Brown's. Indeed, it is his duty to stay in office until it becomes clear which party or combination of parties can command the most support in the new parliament.
"We must always have a government, and until a new government can be formed the present government carries on," explains Professor Robert Hazell, from the Institute for Government.
A similar situation arose in 1974, when Conservative Edward Heath stayed in power for four days after the election trying to put together a coalition even though Labour had more seats.
If Mr Brown decides to press ahead, he can then approach some of the smaller parties to ask for support.

IF GORDON BROWN REMAINS PRIME MINISTER

Two routes are likely to be explored as the prime minister bids to form a new government. Firstly, he can consider forging an alliance with another party or parties to create a coalition.

Without a coalition, parties can try to govern on issue-by-issue basis

As an alternative, Labour might seek informal agreements with other parties, trying to form majorities in favour of each individual bill as they come up. This may include gaining the agreement of another party not to defeat the government in a no-confidence vote.
If coalition is Mr Brown's aim, with Labour likely to need a relatively large number of MPs to vote with them, his first port of call is likely to be the Liberal Democrats.
However, it is unlikely that Mr Brown is the only leader negotiating with the Lib Dems, with David Cameron also exploring the option of gaining their backing to form a Conservative-led government.

HOW MIGHT AGREEMENT BE REACHED?

Professor Hazell says the Liberal Democrats will in effect set the terms of negotiation in these first few days.
"They will decide with whom they want to negotiate first," he says, adding that they may speak to both simultaneously.
He says they may be able to broadly call the shots on whether they would support a minority government or demand a coalition in return for their backing.

Gordon Brown might have to reach across the party divide for support

During the election campaign, leader Nick Clegg has repeatedly said the party with the "biggest mandate" should get the right to govern.
He did not say how he would define that - whether in terms of the largest number of seats or share of the vote.
However, some commentators have interpreted his past comments as suggesting he would not "prop-up" a government led by Mr Brown, while his predecessor Lord Ashdown has suggested his party is "too far apart" from the Conservatives.
Mr Clegg has only said that he will push for a "fairer" Britain in terms of taxes, the political system, schooling and banking reform.
Dr Tim Bale, lecturer in politics at Sussex University, believes an alliance between the parties describing themselves as "progressive" - Labour and the Lib Dems - is possible.
Potentially, he says, they could argue that together they have secured nearly 60% of the vote - if the opinion polls prove to be correct.
"The way they could spin it is that the public actually voted Gordon Brown out and didn't necessarily vote a Lib-Lab coalition out.
"If the Lib Dems play it cleverly, they can actually present this as the majority solution for Britain and a much more stable solution than a Conservative minority government," he adds.

IF GORDON BROWN RESIGNS

If the Conservatives fail to win a majority but have a clear lead in terms of the number of seats and share of the vote, it is possible that Gordon Brown could concede defeat and resign as prime minister.

The country would not readily forgive them for forcing a second election - the parties will be mindful of that and a deal will be struck Dr Ruth Fox Hansard Society Life under a hung Parliament The tricky business of coalitions Hung parliaments of the past

In such circumstances, the Queen would be likely to invite David Cameron - as current Leader of the Opposition - to try to form a government.
Whether he seeks to create a coalition is likely to depend on how far short of a majority his party finds itself.
If the gap is only a few seats, he may prefer to try to continue with a minority government and seek informal arrangements to get each bill passed.

HOW MIGHT AGREEMENT BE REACHED?

If the Conservatives have fallen just a few seats short of a majority, Mr Cameron's first port of call might be the unionist parties in Northern Ireland.
The Conservatives have already formed an electoral alliance with the Ulster Unionist Party, although it remains unclear how far the Democratic Unionists would go to back the Tories.
Dr Tim Bale, politics lecturer at Sussex University, says the DUP's core support is made up of working class voters who would be "badly hit" if the Conservatives withdrew a lot of public spending from the province.
During campaigning, the Scottish and Welsh nationalists have ruled out joining a formal coalition. Instead, they see voting on an issue-by-issue basis as their best opportunity to get the best deal for their constituents.

David Cameron may have to get Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg on side

Again, Mr Bale believes this could present Mr Cameron with difficulties because they are "some way to the left" of the Conservatives.
So, Mr Cameron might find himself dealing with Nick Clegg's Liberal Democrats. This would be particularly likely should the Tories require a large number of outside votes to pass bills.
Again, if this were the case, Mr Clegg's party might be in a strong position to say whether they would support a minority government or demand a coalition in return for their backing.
Electoral reform - a long-standing Lib Dem demand - could still prove a sticking point. The Conservatives are opposed to the idea but might have to concede some ground to strike a deal.
The BBC's deputy political editor James Landale says the Tories might agree, for example, to a referendum on reforming the system while reserving the right to campaign against it.
However, Mr Bale says even if the Conservatives do manage to form a government, "its durability and stability has to be called into question".
"It's not going to have a very big cushion of votes to see it through some very difficult times, [involving] pending cuts obviously but also some of the legislation it wants to put through is going to be quite controversial," he said.

BY WHEN MUST THE GOVERNMENT BE FORMED?

There is no formal deadline for when an administration must be formed but a key date is 25 May, when the Queen's Speech is due to set out the government's priorities during the parliament.
However, Dr Ruth Fox, director of the Hansard Society's parliament and government programme, believes it will be clear within days whether there will be a possibility of a deal between the parties.
"That will determine the direction of government," she says. But the finer details of policy might be worked out later.
Professor Hazell says that while the public is used to elections being over in a day or so, negotiations to form a government in a hung parliament could take between a week and 10 days.

KEY ROLE OF CIVIL SERVANTS

Over the first few days, or weeks, of negotiations the role of the civil servants is likely to be crucial in smoothing talks between the parties.

Civil servants would help smooth negotiations between parties

They would not be allowed to provide policy advice but would be able to show where policy overlaps.
Professor Hazell says the civil servants are "very well prepared" to support negotiations between the parties in the event of a hung parliament.
Earlier this year, the Cabinet Secretary Gus O'Donnell drew up a document on how civil servants would help with these discussions.
In reality, civil servants have long played a part in such discussions, according to Ms Fox. But there is more agreement now on how civil servants could be seconded to parties who are not governing to give details on such matters as economic issues.

QUEEN'S SPEECH 25 MAY

A minority administration must show it has the confidence of the Commons but the Queen's Speech does not have to be the deadline for negotiations between parties.
The administration may put forward a slimmed down legislative programme which it believes is more likely to gain support.
But if it loses the vote on the Queen's Speech this would be seen as a "no-confidence" vote and force its resignation.

EARLY SECOND ELECTION?

If no agreement can be reached between parties and no government was unable to command enough support to get the Queen's Speech through parliament there would be a need for a second election.
However, party leaders may not be keen to go to the polls again unless the opinion polls indicate voter intentions have changed markedly. Parties would also consider the fact that another election would be costly financially.
Ms Fox adds that "the country would not readily forgive them for forcing a second election" and says the parties, mindful of that, will be likely to strike a deal.

courtesy by BBC